Solutions for Enterprise

Probabilistic forecasting

You know that your sales forecast is wrong. You are not going to sell exactly 14239 units next quarter. You are going to sell a bit more, or a bit less. The question is: how much more or less? what is the worst-case scenario?

Our forecasts incorporate the full uncertainty in terms of the the unknowns of where-are-we-now and the unpredictable developments in the future. The forecasts are based on a model, which may include:

  • Randomness
  • Competitive markets
  • Economic conditions
  • Consumer habit formation
  • Seasonality

The models are calibrated using historical sales and opportunity conversion data, as well as

  • Currently logged leads and opportunities
  • Responses to past discount promotions
  • Competitor's prices
  • Commodity and debt market forecasts

Risk Management

Directly calculate the risk of:

  • Inability to meet payments with cash-on-hand
  • Inability to deliver on time or on budget
  • Out-of-stock
  • Capacity ceiling
  • Product failure

The risk can be directly expressed as a percentage probability of the event occurring or as the estimated liability due to this risk.