You know that your sales forecast is wrong. You are not going to sell exactly 14239 units next quarter. You are going to sell a bit more, or a bit less. The question is: how much more or less? what is the worst-case scenario?
Our forecasts incorporate the full uncertainty in terms of the the unknowns of where-are-we-now and the unpredictable developments in the future. The forecasts are based on a model, which may include:
The models are calibrated using historical sales and opportunity conversion data, as well as
Directly calculate the risk of:
The risk can be directly expressed as a percentage probability of the event occurring or as the estimated liability due to this risk.